How big should my sales pipeline be to hit my revenue target?
Aim for open, qualified deals worth about three to four times the revenue you need to close in the period. Below 3× coverage, one lost deal can sink the month.
Pipeline coverage is the value of all open, qualified deals divided by the revenue target for the same period. It exists because most deals do not close: if you win roughly one opportunity in three, you need three in play for every one you plan to bank. Small B2B companies with long sales cycles or a modest win rate need more cover, not less.
A worked example: a four person agency wants €36,000 of new business next quarter, its average project is €9,000 and it wins about 29% of qualified opportunities. It needs four wins, so about 14 qualified deals in play (4 ÷ 0.29), worth roughly €126,000, or 3.5× the target. If the pipeline holds six deals today, the gap is eight opportunities, not a better closing script.
Pipelines also decay. Deals stall, budgets move and contacts change jobs, so last month's coverage is not this month's. In a productive SaaS sales day, top reps keep 10–20 outreach meetings a week on the calendar for exactly this reason: without new conversations, the pipeline dries up within about a month.
How to check your coverage
- 1Count only qualified dealsLeave out contacts who have not confirmed a need, a budget or a timeline. What counts as a qualified lead decides how honest the number is.
- 2Use your real win rateTake the last 10–20 opportunities you finished, won or lost. A guessed 50% win rate makes every pipeline look healthy.
- 3Match the time windowCompare deals that can realistically close this quarter with this quarter's target. A deal expected in eight months does not cover next month's payroll.
- 4Top up every weekAdd new first conversations each week rather than in bursts. A steady inflow of short intro calls, for example through Meetcatcher, stops coverage collapsing when two deals slip at once.
Rule of thumb: divide your target by your win rate to get the pipeline you need, then add a margin for deals that slip. If that number is far above what you have, the fix is more qualified first conversations, and the difference between MQLs and SQLs is usually the first place to look.